Burnham’s watered-down coffee

Phyl Griffiths, Chair of YesCymru

Ain’t devolution fun!

Yes, terrific fun, especially as we await the coronation of Burnham, king of the North. The north of England, obviously.

But devolution is not a party or a one-off event. Once it begins, it is extremely difficult to reverse. It can be slowed down, frustrated or dismissed as a mistake, but it cannot simply be undone. Across Europe, and particularly on these islands, devolved institutions have tended to grow in confidence and authority over time.

Let’s dish out some powers

To understand how we got here, we need to go back to the 1990s, when Westminster decided, in its infinite generosity, to grant a limited measure of power to Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

“Grant” is the important word. This was not a recognition of sovereignty or democratic maturity. It was Westminster’s way of managing growing political pressures without giving up control.

Northern Ireland was central to the whole process. The Good Friday Agreement required a degree of self-government and a political settlement capable of accommodating its unique position. But Westminster could hardly create a new system for Northern Ireland while ignoring demands for devolution elsewhere.

Scotland was becoming increasingly dissatisfied with rule from London, while Wales was beginning to rediscover its political voice. Devolution offered Westminster a convenient way of addressing all three situations at once: help secure peace in Northern Ireland, answer Scottish demands for greater autonomy and give Wales enough power to satisfy, or at least quieten, the growing demand for national government.

And we were delighted. Wales finally had democratic institutions of its own and some responsibility, however limited, for its own affairs. The bar was low, but the celebrations were genuine.

Unionists were fairly relaxed about it too. Why wouldn’t they be? The monarchy, the military, the BBC, Team GB and the wider machinery of British identity still appeared more than strong enough to keep Welsh and Scottish nationalism in check. Devolution was supposed to release pressure, not create a route towards independence.

Everyone was satisfied. Or so they thought.

Devolution finds its feet

Then something happened that Westminster had not fully anticipated: devolution began to take on a life of its own.

People became accustomed to having national institutions and, before long, voted to give them more powers. In Wales and Scotland especially, there was growing support for decisions being made closer to the people affected by them.

That confidence continued to grow. In Scotland, it eventually led to an independence referendum that came far closer to succeeding than many unionists had expected.

Then came the pandemic. Differences between the governments in Cardiff, Edinburgh and London suddenly became much more visible. In Wales, many people took reassurance from having a government that often chose a more cautious course than Westminster, where the handling of the crisis was frequently chaotic.

Support for independence grew here too. YesCymru developed into a mass movement, attracting people who had never previously thought of themselves as radicals or even nationalists. Independence was no longer confined to the political fringes. It had become a serious question in mainstream Welsh politics.

That was when defenders of the union began to take the movement much more seriously.

Watering down

Ah yes, devolution. A word that appears to mean very different things depending on where you stand.

That brings us to Andy Burnham, Westminster’s prime-minister-in-waiting, who has placed devolution at the heart of his political vision. His supporters talk of a “rewired Britain”, with power moving out of London to metro mayors, city regions and local government. Burnham has even floated the idea of a “No. 10 North”.

Much of that language sounds familiar. After all, many of us have spent decades arguing that decisions should be made closer to the people affected by them.

The difficulty is what this model could mean for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Here, devolution is not simply about running services more efficiently. It is a national and constitutional settlement, based on the recognition that these countries are political communities with their own democratic institutions.

Yet some of the thinking around Burnham appears to point in a different direction, with power bypassing Cardiff, Edinburgh and Belfast and going directly to councils, combined authorities and regional bodies.

As Richard Wyn Jones recently observed, some of those close to Burnham would rather deal directly with local authorities than strengthen the Senedd or Holyrood. In Wales and Scotland, that would weaken national devolution rather than extend it. It would reduce the Senedd and Holyrood to just another layer of government, rather than institutions that express the democratic will of a nation.

Café Para Todos

In Spain, there is a phrase: “Café para todos”, coffee for everyone. It describes an approach in which everyone is offered broadly the same settlement, regardless of the very different political circumstances involved.

If national devolution gives Wales and Scotland greater confidence, balance it with a wider network of mayors and regional authorities. The national institutions would remain, but their status and authority would gradually be diluted.

None of this would be presented as a reversal of devolution. Taking powers back from the Senedd or Holyrood would be politically difficult. Instead, power would be spread across so many different bodies that the original purpose of national devolution became less distinct.

Coffee for everyone: a mayor here, a combined authority there, another regional body somewhere else.

But managing a constitutional question is not the same as resolving it. Once a nation develops democratic confidence, it rarely volunteers to become a region again.

Wales and Scotland will not simply forget the confidence that devolution has created, however much watered-down coffee Westminster chooses to serve.

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